Volodymyr Zelensky: The dismantling of a Hero

Public opinion – it is a bloodthirsty beast. It purrs and cajoles when a hero is born, it mercilessly rips him apart as soon as he stumbles or even begins to fall. The Ukrainian comedian was a nonexistent entity before he assumed his country’s presidency; he was a shining light to the West and beyond as he stood up to injustice on behalf of an invaded nation.

The injustice continues to this day. Russians under Putin’s leadership continue to trample on international law and human rights. But our outrage has begun to subside since our well-being, standard of living, and even, possibly, peace is threatened. People remember that until half a year ago Ukraine meant nothing to them, many did not even know that this country existed. And now, all of a sudden, drivers are supposed to pay double for oil, while companies must lay off more and more workers because they run out of the gas required to run their operations or can no longer pay for it. In Davos, it is mainly millionaires and billionaires who are worried about the future, but common people, workers, and employees, suffer much more. Off the record, many are beginning to ask themselves whether we here in the West should really care whether Ukraine is ruled by a man like Zelensky or by Putin.

Already voices are being raised that this comedian-president has long since overstepped the mark. Are we supposed to give up our comfortable lives and our achievements as an exporting country just because the Ukrainians want to join NATO and even the EU, which even now is barely getting along with its existing members? It this country really that important?

Zelensky himself seems to suspect by now that public opinion, this terrible beast, is slowly baring its teeth. He is no longer as radiant as before. His voice has become hoarse, his countenance has darkened. On the one hand, this may be due to the fact that the triumphant cries about an impending Ukrainian victory were obviously premature. Russians are tough, and they are known for their staying power. They usually show their greatest strength just when you think you can write them off. True, Putin had completely miscalculated when he thought he could bring Ukraine to its knees with a lightning raid, and he miscalculated no less when he speculated that the decadent West, hooked on the Russian gas and oil drip, would turn a blind eye to the brutal assault.

 We know: the exact opposite was the case. Appalled and outraged by Putin’s actions in violation of international law, Sweden and Finland will place themselves under NATO’s protective umbrella: NATO thus became larger, not smaller, as Putin wanted. In general, the West confronted the Russian president with unexpected unity and singlemindedness. However, the sanctions imposed by the West will only hurt Russia in the long run, as they are virtually ineffective in the short term. Because war is cheap for Russia – destruction is always comparatively cheap, only construction is costly. As one of the best experts on the Russian economy, the now exiled economist Vladislav Inozemtsev, calculates, it costs no more than ten billion dollars a month, the equivalent of just two and a half days’ worth of Russian exports. Only Western arms deliveries to Ukraine do really harm Russia, so Inozemtsev. Only these are effective in the short term. But they, too, are so only, it should be added, because the Ukrainians under Zelensky’s surprisingly successful leadership have shown amazing resilience. Unfortunately, even the heroism of the Ukrainians did not prevent the the Russians from gaining a foothold in Lugansk and Donbass and on the Sea of Azov from Mariupol to just outside Odessa. In Kherson, Putin is already having Russian passports handed out to cut off any way back.

But the real reason for the growing dejection of the once shining hero Zelensky lies deeper. The Ukrainian president is beginning to realize that more and more he is nothing better than a make-believe hero. Despite all heroic resistance to the invader, he and his beloved country – which wants only one thing: freedom – have lost control of their destiny. No, not primarily because the millionaires and billionaires of Davos fear for their profits and because the workers, who are even more affected by incessantly rising prices, fear for their livelihood, and not even because all those Putin’s friends in the West are raising their head again. No, something more frightening has happened. Zelensky has come to understand that he and his country are merely puppets: puppets in the great game of two superpowers. The man is not only likeable as a personality but also very intelligent, so it cannot escape his notice that his repeated demand to talk to Putin, to face him in negotiations, will never be fulfilled – or only if he first concedes all the demands that his brutal, now no longer likeable but likewise highly intelligent adversary will pass on to him. 

For even more terrifying than the sometimes purring, then suddenly mercilessly biting monster we know as public opinion is the struggle of superpowers for power and influence, of which public opinion and ordinary citizens in general know little or nothing. The President of the Russian Federation has at his disposal an equally fearful instrument of extermination of all life on our planet as the United States – his power must be feared just as much as theirs. But it was not long ago that an American president unscrupulously dismissed his country as a third-rate regional power. The insult created deep resentment in Russia. As a result, a tremendous hatred of the West has spread over the country – not only among the elite. Without this hatred it would be hard to explain why the first Russian television channel dared to equate the current German chancellor with Hitler (see for instance the last edition of Besagon).

The Russians see Ukraine and its leadership as mere puppets of the United States, but they do not see Europe any differently. Since the war with Ukraine, Russian hatred toward Europe – especially Germany – is even greater than that toward the United States. Europeans try to overlook thisdevelopment. They don’t want to see that both Ukraine and Europe, which is militarily quite defenseless compared to the two superpowers, have become border areas between the fronts. What is happening in Ukraine today could tomorrow be the fate of the whole of Europe. The two superpowers themselves dare not attack each other. They know too well that they risk their own demise if they do, but the border areas between or beyond the fronts lend themselves to proxy wars below the nuclear threshold. So it was in Soviet times in Africa and the Middle East. And so it is today in Ukraine.

Zelensky seems to have suddenly realized that freedom or slavery of his country only seemingly depends on whether he makes glittering speeches at the UN or before Western parliaments. In truth, the fate of Ukraine solely depends on how far Russia and the U.S. can and will go without risking a nuclear holocaust. I assume that the war will by no means last for years, because the Russian armed forces, as well as the Western military arsenals, are already quite exhausted. This is, however, a most dangerous situation, because a sudden reversal of military achievements on one side or the other could lead to the use of nuclear weapons. In this critical situation, Russia and the United States will seek a compromise – Kissinger is already urging it. At this moment, Zelensky’s wishes will no longer count. In all likelihood, Ukraine will have to give up not only the Donbass and Lugansk, but possibly also part of its southern territory. Zelensky knows quite well that such a compromise would be nothing less than a political death sentence for him as for any other president. He would be accused of betraying his country.

Some compromise will have to be reached. After all the Russians are and will remain our neighbors. They are so under a moderate leadership, when we admire them as a great European cultural nation, and they remain so under Putin, who avowedly considers the collapse of the Soviet Union the greatest catastrophe of the twentieth century, rehabilitates Stalin, and makes no secret of his desire to force decadent, fascist Europe once again under the Russian heel. If such a man meets with a lack of resistance – and without the U.S., Europe is no match for him militarily – there is no guarantee whatsoever that he will not achieve his goal. Toughness and willingness to compromise in this order, are both required in this situation.

From now on, there will probably be little talk of Volodymyr Zelensky. The Moor has done his duty, the Moor can go. Politics is that cruel – an even bigger beast than public opinion. In the end, the two superpowers will sacrifice this extraordinary man without hesitation. And we will even have to admit that their choice is inevitable. For what would be the alternative? A nuclear world conflagration. In the age of nuclear and hydrogen bombs, we must live together with our neighbors, even if, like Russia today, they are ruled by men who condemn the fascists, only to imitate them in every possible way.

*Just now (5/29/2022) Zelensky did a 180-degree turnaround. He let it be known that some territories occupied by the Russians could be recaptured only with hundreds of thousands of dead. It remains to be seen how and whether he will survive this bold move. If Putin understands Zelensky’s speech the way it is meant, namely as a peace offer, then the war could indeed soon be over.

Europe – Island of Pacifism?

This question is no longer discussed only behind closed doors. CDU politician and former environment minister Norbert Röttgen made the following statement in an interview with Der Spiegel: 

SPIEGEL: You write in your book that for Europe it is a matter of “to be or not to be.” A bit pathetic, isn’t it? Röttgen: No, it’s the naked truth. We have outsourced energy to Russia, the growth markets to China, security comes from the USA. At the same time, climate change and migration pose enormous challenges. Now we’re adding war to the mix. What is at stake is safeguarding our European way of life. If we do not defend it, it will not survive (Der Spiegel 21/2022).

Europe owes its world-historical rise to the Industrial Revolution, which, beginning in England towards the end of the eighteenth century, enabled the rise of Germany – and this revolution was based on the exploitation of abundant coal deposits. By the time oil began to play a decisive role in the First World War, the old continent was already in trouble. Much more so in the Second World war. “The war in Europe was decided in the struggle for control of oil supplies in the Caspian Sea area. The German advance to Stalingrad was aimed at seizing these supplies and denying the Soviet Union access” (Ugo Bardi).

After the war, this problem seemed to be solved in an unexpectedly peaceful way. Even if Germany’s own energy sources were to dry up and coal abandoned because of its harmful effect on the environment, an increasingly globalized economy now provided it with all the energy it required: from the Gulf as well as from Africa or Russia, and later even as liquefied gas from the US.

Globalization seemed to be the panacea for scarcity. Germany produced its industrial goods, which were in demand all over the world, and the rest of the world was happy to supply it with raw materials in return. In this way, dependencies grew that were obviously to everyone’s advantage. In the early 1990s, no less a person than Robert Reich, Bill Clinton’s former Secretary of Labor, was still singing a resounding song of praise for the blessings of globalization – and almost all leading economists were happily singing along with him (some still do so today). After all, the doctrine of sharing labor and resources is perfectly correct: everyone gives what he has or can do, and in return he receives what he lacks or cannot do. Can there be a more beautiful ideal of reciprocity? David Ricardo had already raved about it.

The stumbling block lies in the consequences that arise from the ingrained human need for power. When Robert Reich wrote “The Work of Nations” (possibly with the ambition to surpass Adam Smith’s well-known classic “The Wealth of Nations”), the American world power seemed willing and able to free its citizens from all dirty and routine industrial work by ceding it to the poor Chinese in what was then an underdeveloped country. In the name of his science, a leading economic expert thus opened the floodgates of outsourcing.*1* In quite a short time, U.S. industries were dismantled at home and rebuilt in China. In hindsight, we may say that Robert Reich laid the theoretical groundwork for the U.S. economy to sell both its nation’s work and wealth to China. This happened so quickly, thoroughly and with so much collectively mobilized energy that the Far Eastern country de facto became the world’s first economic power within just three decades.*2*

Americans had invented or developed to industrial maturity almost everything on which modern civilization is based – everything from computers to cell phones and the Internet, but since the beginning of the 21st century they are no longer the guardians of the treasures they had created. Donald Trump was the first to look with disgust and amazement at the Rust Belt in his own country and the many failed livelihoods that had sprung from it. Only then did Americans realize the monumental stupidity they had committed. Seduced by “experts” in the name of an abstract theory that ignores power because it has no place in economic theory, they had surrendered far more than just their industrial production to China – with the erosion of their economic base, their position as a superpower became endangered. Trump’s diagnosis was correct, but his therapy of reviving American industries by imposing import tariffs on Chinese products had little effect. That is because you can dismantle existing industrial plants so to speak overnight; but rebuilding ruins takes time and rarely succeeds.

Germany has only partially outsourced its industries. As Röttgen notes, the outsourcing mainly affects growth markets, the real source of wealth. But while the U.S. outsourced much of its manufacturing industries, Germany has moved into an even deeper dependency by getting most of its energy from Russia. In this case, too, the power factor was completely disregarded, as if this, too, were just some sort of normal business. But Putin has been thinking all along about how to strengthen this dependence on the one hand and how to abuse it all the better for political purposes on the other. That is why the whole of Europe is currently in an even more critical situation than the U.S. Apart from coal, which for environmental reasons should no longer be used and nuclear energy Germany rejects for the same reason, it has no sufficient energy sources to maintain its industries and with them its previous standard of living. This would not be possible even if Europe were to succeed in a massive effort to switch entirely to renewable energies. No matter how much the environmental expert Mojib Latif from Kiel university may insist: “Sustainably manufactured products must be cheaper than competing products that do not respect the demands of sustainability”. In the world we live in for the next decades, this cannot and will not be the case. A state that produces with dirty energy enjoys price advantages all over the world. “China is flooding the markets with dirty products that we simply shouldn’t be buying anymore,” the same expert rightly notes (Der Spiegel 21/2022). But how will Germany get rid of all its export articles, such as its cars in China, if we start such a boycott at home?

The power factor is ignored in economic science, which is why experts like Robert Reich regularly mislead entire countries. Let’s look at Ukraine. After its independence at the beginning of the 1990s, it acted economically quite correctly when it skillfully maneuvered between Europe and Russia so as to obtain the most favorable offer from each side. Likewise, Germany behaved in an economically correct way when it procured the oil and gas it needed from those countries where it was cheapest. Only a year ago, no state was blamed for doing what made sense economically. But economic activity and power cannot be separated in the long run. We cannot demand military protection from one power – the United States – and provide the other power – Russia – with foreign currency through gas and oil deals, which it then uses to build up armaments that threaten the US.

Ukraine has learned in the hardest way that no state can maneuver between the fronts with impunity. In an article of February 15, 2015 (Was hat Washington mit Europa vor?), I had already prophetically foreseen the consequences. “In view of the pressure coming from the victorious Republicans, the American president /Obama/ will probably soon have to give up his opposition to arms deliveries to Ukraine. Once that happens, the small-scale war on the European Union’s doorstep will turn into a hot one, in which Russia will undoubtedly have the better cards due to its geographic proximity.”

In the meantime, not only Germany but all of Europe is in a similar situation as Ukraine, namely between the fronts of the great powers. Both Russia and the US can cut off our gas supply at any time. To be sure, China, too, has few raw materials of its own, but compared to Germany, it dominates the growth markets and has been rapidly rearming, both conventionally and nuclear. It therefore has much less to worry about than Europe.

What are the conclusions to be drawn from this situation? First, one that we certainly do not want to draw, namely a return to coal or other dirty energies that irretrievably destroy the environment.

Norbert Röttgen has hinted at a second conclusion – now being stated in no uncertain terms in EU committies. Europe must not continue to be militarily dependent; it must be able to defend itself if necessary. Since convincing deterrence in our time is only possible with nuclear weapons, such a demand inevitably means that the whole of Europe – and not just France – must have its nuclear “force de frappe”. The French have long accepted their small nuclear power (which is not really taken seriously by Russia and the United States). German pacifists, on the other hand, react in a frightened, indignant and resolutely hostile manner. In a world already filled to the brim with weapons of mass destruction, each additional nuclear warhead only increases the likelihood of a nuclear holocaust. Europe should form a nuclear-weapon-free island instead of following the North Koreans and Iranians.

This is an evident and convincing argument, but only if we acknowledge its consequences. Those who follow the Christian commandment to turn the right cheek after a slap on the left must expect to end up as slaves, because as a rule individuals and peoples who could not or would not defend themselves have suffered precisely this fate. Shortly after gaining state independence, Ukraine offered both cheeks in the Christian way by signing the so-called Budapest Memorandum on December 5, 1994. In the memorandum, Ukraine renounced its entire nuclear arsenal, in return for which the United States, Great Britain and Russia agreed to respect Ukraine’s “existing borders”. The country thus voluntarily rendered itself defenseless. From the point of view of convinced pacifists this was the only right thing to do, from the point of view of Ukrainians living today it was an unforgivable mistake. Russia has shown the world that it respects treaty obligations less than the paper they are written on. Instead of protecting Ukraine’s “existing borders,” it first annexed Crimea and would now prefer to conquer the entire country. Far from guaranteeing Ukraine’s security after it renounced nuclear weapons, Russia now murders its citizend and reduces its cities to rubble.

Should Europe decide to become a nuclear power like Russia, China and the U.S., this will definitely mean even greater danger, even greater risk for humanity as a whole – this is what our great technological progress and our inability to control it have done to us. Conversely, if Europe persists in being an island of defenselessness and pacifism (at least in comparison with nuclear-armed states like Russia, China and the US), it must be prepared and even willing to accept the same fate as Ukraine. In my view, the credibility of German pacifists depends, on whether or not they are willing to commit themselves to this consequence and accept it without reservation.

Let me conclude with a more hopeful note. Immanuel Kant was right. There will be no end to this insoluble dilemma unless the disastrous arms race of mankind against itself is ended by a supranational authority accepted by all. Then the power factor too will finally cease to play a role in the equally murderous economic race.

1 1 More realistically, we may of course argue that the U.S. economy does what it wants anyway. But it feels doubly comfortable and secure when it also receives the blessing of science – ex cattedra so to speak.

2 In conscious opposition to Robert Reich, I warned against outsourcing in my most successful book (Die Arbeitslose Gesellschaft, S. Fischer, 4th ed. 1999). In order to fend it off, the German economy would have had to give up about a quarter of its exports (in the meantime, it is much more). This was not only against the spirit of the times, but above all against profit. Meinhard Miegel wrote to me at the time: “Mr. Jenner, try to persuade German industry to reduce its profits.

Wrong: Checkmate! Ukraine will capitulate and Europe is brought to its knees

Self-correction two days after publication. The demand for payment in rubles could have led to a halt in gas supplies and the destructive economic and social effects mentioned below. However, Putin left himself a loophole (see footnote *0* below). Nevertheless, I am not deleting the article because it shows Europe’s fatal dependence on foreign resources and its possible consequences.

Continue reading Wrong: Checkmate! Ukraine will capitulate and Europe is brought to its knees

Friends and Foes – German (Self)Righteousness

It happens that sharp-eyed psychologists are amazed at how similar people, e.g. men and women, can become when they are together for years, e.g. in a marriage. Malicious voices even claim that such similarity may frequently be observed between a dog and its master (mistress). Both then seems to become each others strange counterfeits. We need not find this surprising: a close coexistence inevitably leads to an alignment of habits, views, preferences, and antipathies – otherwise a close coexistence would not come about in the first place. Continue reading Friends and Foes – German (Self)Righteousness

Brotherly Love the Russian way – Struggling for the New World Order

The Russian president recently let the world know that the Ukrainians are a nation of brothers, but that they have been subjected to Western brainwashing which turned them into Nazis. Apparently, he assumes that the largest and most powerful among the brothers, the Russians, are legitimized to impose their law on the smaller and weaker ones, that is, to bring them under the Russian heel. Continue reading Brotherly Love the Russian way – Struggling for the New World Order

Putin’s vision for Ukraine and for Europe

So now we can finally be sure: The Russian knout is in the window. For Putin, not only Ukraine is a failed state, but he and Xi Jinping already prophetically foresee the end of the free Western world. The territorially largest nuclear power offers a political alternative that can draw on a long imperial tradition – from the tsars to Stalin to Vladimir Putin himself. The Russian president offers us an imposed Gleichschaltung, safely backed by the police, the military, the state security service, and the systematic suppression of all opposition. Continue reading Putin’s vision for Ukraine and for Europe

Global Arena: China and the Dialectics of Freedom

If the world were a racetrack in which nations compete for victory and medals, we would admire the mighty catching-up nations that are surging ahead. These include China and India – Russia would like to join them. Western countries still claim the first position, but we see them torn by the strongest internal contradictions and social protests. This is especially true of the United States.

Continue reading Global Arena: China and the Dialectics of Freedom

Delta – Is democracy losing the battle against dictatorship and autocracy?

Although we usually hear populists in both camps saying, that the realm of good – their own – is facing that of evil – the other side, U.S. and Chinese students and scholars move effortlessly from one country to the other. After the Chinese conformed most of their institutions to the Western model, the similarities between them are significantly greater than anything that still separates them. Continue reading Delta – Is democracy losing the battle against dictatorship and autocracy?

Nation state or Homo technicus universalis?

Abstract:

The “Clash of Cultures” due to irreconcilable religions and ideologies belongs to the past. In contrast, the “Clash of Civilizations”, i.e. the worldwide struggle for an equally high and, if possible, ever higher material standard of living, is darkening our common future, since the last resources are being plundered and nature increasingly poisoned in the name of progress. Mankind will only escape this struggle against itself and against nature by submitting to a global authority that demands the same restrictions from all of us.

Continue reading Nation state or Homo technicus universalis?

The United States in a debt binge – role model for the rest of the world?

Dear Mr. Lingens /Austrian Author and economist/, I don’t know if you are doing well to sing the praises of the beauty of debt while comparing little Austria with the big US. Remember, since about the 1990s, not only the whole world, but also many Americans are beginning to talk about the decline of their country (and the most clear-sighted observers of the U.S. are still to be found in the US themselves). Continue reading The United States in a debt binge – role model for the rest of the world?

Max Weber – Jared Diamond – Joseph Henrich

There are fundamental questions that every human being and probably every people and epoch ask themselves. Who or what am I? Why and how am I different from others? What is it that makes me singular? Max Weber, Jared Diamond, and Joseph Henrich have each asked this question in their own yet very similar ways. Weber in The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism (1904), Diamond in Guns, Germs and Steel (1997), and Henrich in The WEIRDest People in the World(2019).

Max Weber wanted to explore why capitalism, that economic system so astonishingly successful in his time, had arisen in Europe, and especially in its Protestant parts. Jared Diamond asks his readers why Cortez and Pizarro, with a mere handful of soldiers, so easily defeated the two most powerful empires of the New world, namely Aztecs and Incas at the beginning of the 16th century. Why did these two peoples of the New World not invade and subjugate Europe? Joseph Henrich formulates the question in a similar vein. How did Europe come to follow a path different from all previous history, namely a weird one (“WEIRD = Western, Educated, Industrialized, Rich, Democratic”)? The three questions resemble each other, but the answers of the three scholars differ in significant ways.

Max Weber is rooted in the German tradition

of a conception of history and sociology deeply influenced by Romanticism that makes him locate the peculiarities of human development primarily in cultural causes. For Weber, it was the Protestant ethic that had created the spirit of capitalism – albeit in a tortuous, indirect way. And conversely, it was its opposite, the religiously conditioned magical variety of traditional constraints, which had prevented its emergence in pre-capitalist times. Culturally conditioned human attitudes can thus become the causes of profound social transformations – a view with which Weber distinguished himself from Karl Marx.

In contrast, Jared Diamond rather follows a tradition,

one of whose most outstanding 18th-century representatives was Montesquieu, who held that the decisive factor for the divergent developmental paths of different peoples was not their subjective attitudes, but rather externally given conditions such as climate. This theory is now passé, but Diamond, in a work of immense erudition, has convincingly demonstrated that “Eurasia got the wild ancestors of wheat, barley, millet, oats, and rice, along with cows, horses, pigs, goats, sheep, water buffaloes, and camels. Meanwhile, the Americas ended up with few wild plants or animals that were both easy to domesticate and productive. Corn, the major staple in the New World, required numerous genetic changes from its wild version to yield a productive crop – so it was a long road. For domesticated animals, the Americas ended up with llamas, guinea pigs, and turkeys – which gave them no general-purpose work animals like oxen, horses, water buffaloes, or donkeys to pull plows, carry heavy burdens, and crank mills. In Australia, the candidate crops and domesticated animals were even fewer than in the Americas. Accentuating these inequalities in fauna and flora, Eurasia’s complex societies also developed more rapidly due to an east-west geographic orientation. This fostered the rapid development and diffusion of new crops, agricultural knowledge, domesticated animals, and technological know-how” (this is how Henrich summarizes Diamond’s theses). To which a further insight of Diamond should be added. The inhabitants of Eurasia had acquired immunity against a broad range of diseases due to their close coexistence with domestic animals – in contrast to the inhabitants of Australia and the New World, who died en masse from the germs introduced by Europeans.

Jared Diamond thus harkens back to the initial scientific tradition of deriving cultural attitudes and behaviors from externally imposed conditions. Since this approach is far more in line with the strict standards established by the natural sciences since the 17th century, modern historical science and sociology have in recent decades followed Diamond far more than Max Weber. It is surely no exaggeration to state that this orientation has brought about nothing less than an explosion of research activity. All the methods and findings of the natural sciences are now being used to retrace man’s past over the millennia in unimagined material detail.

It is all the more surprising, then,

that Harvard professor Joseph Henrich, a man who began his studies in aerospace engineering, i.e. in the natural sciences, is directing his own research back to cultural causes. After what has just been said, this may well be considered a scientific sensation. He answers the question of the causes of Europe’s special path, which led to a capitalist economy, democratic constitutions and a historically unique development of individualism, in an astonishing way. “The much-heralded ideals of Western civilization, like human rights, liberty, representative democracy, and science, aren’t monuments to pure reason or logic, as so many assume. People didn’t suddenly become rational during the Enlightenment of the 17th and 18th centuries, and then invent the modern world. Instead, these institutions represent cumulative cultural products – born from a particular cultural psychology – that trace their origins back over centuries, through a cascade of causal chains involving wars, markets, and monks, to a peculiar package of incest taboos, marriage prohibitions, and family prescriptions (the MFP) that developed in a radical religious sect – Western Christianity.”

And Henrich goes significantly further. From the very beginning, the Catholic Church had pursued a marriage and family policy in Europe that as early as 1000 AD had almost completely dissolved the close kinship relationships that prevailed everywhere else (except among hunter-gatherers). This policy was particularly evident in the strict prohibition of marriage between cousins and other close relatives, which had formed the basic pattern of biologically defined units. Thus, the individual was torn away from all kinship-defined ties of clans and tribes. The place previously occupied by obligations and constraints to the extended family and clans was now taken by common interests and motives that extended to and united biological strangers. In other words, it was the work of the Church that the individual defined himself less and less by his origin and more and more by his very personal aspirations and skills. The free association of biological strangers in markets, guilds, etc. – so characteristic of Western development – was triggered by the cultural policy of the Church.*1*

Max Weber always asked (though not with the exclusivity of Karl Marx) about the material interests behind political actions. So does Henrich, if only in one place of his book. “The Church had potent incentives to promote individual ownership and testamentary inheritance. Working with secular rulers, the Church pushed for laws supporting individual ownership, default inheritance rules favoring strictly lineal inheritance (cutting out brothers, uncles, and cousins), and greater autonomy in making bequests by testament. This drive for individual ownership and personal testaments would have weakened kin-based organizations, because these corporate groups would have continually lost their land and wealth to the Church. Lying on their deathbeds, Christians gave what they could to the Church to improve their prospects for the afterlife… By 900 CE, the Church owned about a third of the cultivated land in western Europe, including in Germany (35 percent) and France (44 percent). By the Protestant Reformation in the 16th century, the Church owned half of Germany, and between one-quarter and one-third of England.”

On the one hand, Henrich continues Max Weber’s arguments,

on the other hand, he goes much beyond it. Protestantism, he argues, only furthered a trend that the Church had already set in motion for one and a half thousand years with its marriage and family policies. Protestantism can therefore only be seen as the culminating conclusion of a development that had begun with the very takeover of power by the Church. This is a definite step beyond the thesis of Max Weber.

The widening of arguments and evidence also applies to the analysis of the causes which so greatly hindered the emergence of free markets, representative rule and individualism in other parts of the world. In the predominance of castes in India and clans in China, Weber had seen an insurmountable obstacle to the emergence of capitalism. Likewise, he explained the resistance of traditional societies to the emergence of capitalist forms of economy by the opposition of internal and external morality (which in turn is based on the distinction between biological kin and biological strangers). And Weber had intuitively summarized this resistance in the concept of magic – magic as a cultural force inimical to all forms of innovation. Henrich, however, provides much more concrete evidence. He tries to demonstrate that an elementary fact of social organization, namely the close biological ties of people in traditional kinship relationships – primarily marriage between cousins – was the most effective obstacle to that special development which Europe was only able to embark on because the Church had systematically removed this obstacle through its marriage and family policy.

Here Henrich therefore also differs from Jared Diamond

The latter makes us understand why the conquest of the New World and Australia took place from Eurasia and not in the opposite direction. Diamond enumerates the many external advantages that this continent had over the other two. One might ask, however, why within the Eurasian continent it happened to be tiny Europe and not mighty China – still far more prosperous until the 17th century – that subjugated large parts of the world since the beginning of the 16th century – and this despite the fact that at the very beginning of the 15th century China had managed to send the then most powerful fleet as far as the borders of Africa? And why was this enterprise not planned as an instrument of conquest in the first place? Jared Diamond’s insights do not explain this curious fact and probably cannot explain it, because the external causes listed by him would rather suggest that rich China and not Europe would have conquered the world. Diamond notes: “competition between different political entities spurred innovation in geographically fragmented Europe, and.. the lack of such competition held innovation back in unified China.” But this takes us back to the question why competition played such a significant role in Europe and not in China?

Henrich himself does not pose the question of why Europe and not China conquered the new world, but it seems to me that his theory may very well provide an answer. On the one hand, classical China, dominated throughout by clans, never knew competition between equals. Moreover, it always closed itself to the barbarians of the outside world, that is, against biological foreigners and their constant invasions (the Great Wall representing up to the present day mankind’s most monumental testimony to this aversion). The Roman Church, on the other hand, not only challenged biological otherness with its policies, but largely abolished it. All people were equal before God and could therefore be equal under one religion and political rule. For this reason, it was considered a legitimate goal to subjugate the rest of the world. In this way, Europe – not China – had prepared itself psychologically for a globalized world and subsequently initiated those very conquests that eventually brought about globalization. 

Psychology – it too plays a prominent role in Joseph Henrich’s work

The politics of the Church not only intervened in the social organization of people preparing them for democratic constitutions, where the personal value of each individual would count infinitely more than his biological origin. These politics also had profound psychological effects because they fostered characteristics that would have been difficult to develop under traditional conditions, namely individualism, analytical thinking, rejection of authority, intellectual independence, willingness to innovate.

“Concretely, think of the UN diplomats, corporate managers, or high-level executives… All are materially comfortable, yet their propensity for (1) impersonal honesty (parking illegally… ), (2) universal morality (lying in court to protect their reckless buddies… ), and (3) nepotism (hiring relatives into executive positions) varies immensely and can be explained by our measures of kinship intensity and Church exposure… /But/ national populations that collectively experienced longer durations under the Western Church tend to be (A) less tightly bound by norms, (B) less conformist, (C) less enamored with tradition, (D) more individualistic, (E) less distrustful of strangers, (F) stronger on universalistic morality, (G) more cooperative in new groups with strangers, (H) more responsive to third-party punishment… , (I) more inclined to voluntarily donate blood, (J) more impersonally honest (toward faceless institutions), (K) less inclined to accumulate parking tickets under diplomatic immunity, and (L) more analytically minded.”

Thus, the Church’s policies continue to have a massive impact right into the present time. “Our analyses show that if a region was inside the Carolingian Empire during the Early Middle Ages, its rate of first cousin marriage in the 20th century was minuscule, and probably zero. If the region was outside the Carolingian Empire, as were southern Italy, southern Spain, and Brittany (France’s northwestern peninsula), the rate was higher. In Sicily, there were so many requests for dispensations to marry cousins in the 20th century that the pope delegated special power to the bishop of Sicily to allow marriages between second cousins without the Vatican’s permission.”

And those numbers reveal an even more amazing correlation: “The greater the rate of cousin marriage in a province, the higher the rates of corruption and Mafia activity.”

Individualism, rejection of authority, intellectual independence, willingness to innovate

are, in our time, qualities with positive connotations that almost no one seriously questions. This gives rise to another contrast between Henrich and his two great predecessors, Max Weber and Jared Diamond. Insignificant reservations aside, Joseph Henrich sees a great progress in the social and psychological evolution that has made possible this weird and unique Western path (remember weird = Western, Educated, Industrialized, Rich, Democratic”). His book reads like a paean to this extraordinary historic achievement in which, by the way, the US occupies the top position with regard to most criteria.

In contrast, Max Weber had spoken of the “steel casing of capitalism,” of the impersonality and “loneliness of man” in modern society, and he did not try to conceal the negative aspects of an overwhelming bureaucracy to which it has to submit. To be sure, Henrich mentions the higher suicide rates in Protestant as opposed to Catholic regions, a fact that already attracted Emile Durkheim’s attention, but in his book these limitations only figure as minor blemishes in what on the whole represents a magnificent development of humankind.

As for Jared Diamond, he is far too much of a historian with a deep love of everything concrete that catches his eye to embark on such generalizations. The question is, are they justified? With this question I would like to turn to Henrich’s method.

Henrich treats culture

with the instruments of the natural sciences. He does this in so systematical a way that, in my estimation, more than half of his book of no less than 680 pages is – directly or indirectly – devoted to methodological considerations. Readability suffers from such preoccupation – these considerations together with the accompanying statistics would probably be better off in an appendix – but as a rigorous researcher, Henrich seems to fear nothing so much as to be convicted of lack of seriousness in dealing with causal explanations and statistical evidence. This caution has brought him success. Renowned peers like Francis Fukuyama, Ian Morris, Daron Acemoglu have praised the book: it has definitely earned its place in the wake of Weber and Diamond.

Nevertheless, some reservations intrude on my mind with regard to method. The impression that must arise in the unbiased reader is just too deceptively optimistic. With the methods of rigorous analysis originating from the natural sciences, the proof now seems conclusive that mankind, having overcome disruptive obstacles (such as the marriage of cousins and the traditional clan mentality that accompanies it), had to follow a path of infinite ascent – all numbers collected by Henrich (and they are many) seem to confirm this conclusion. We get the impression that cultural developments are just as predictable as those of inanimate nature (where, for example, we can predict for coming millennia the positions of the celestial bodies surrounding us).

At this point I would like to express some reservations

Henrich has overlooked an important historical fact. Presumably, the Church succeeded in destroying close kinship ties to a certain extent, but it did not remove them in order to create new human beings freed from all ties but in order to create believing Christians ready to offer donations. It has simply put wider ideological ties in the place of more restrictive biological ones. As we know, one’s brethren were now fellow Christians while one’s enemies were the heretics at home and the unconverted pagans (Muslims, etc.) abroad. For a long time, these followers of the devil could be murdered with tacit consent and or even open approval by the Church. The latter certainly substantially extended existing ties when defining these ideologically, but it has by no means abolished them.

We know that this opposition between us and them continues unabated in today’s secularized society. Those who oppose political correctness at home are muzzled in Western countries, while they may be persecuted or even murdered in states like Russia or China. Nations that cling to their own ideology (nowadays, Western, Russian or Chinese capitalism) point thousands of nuclear warheads on their respective enemies. Seen in this light, nothing essential has changed.

A second criticism concerns the great ruptures of history

These just cannot be grasped by means of the methods used in Henrich’s book. This observation applies to the great revolutions which we call Neolithic,  Industrial and Digital. As is well known today, the sedentary way of life initially only brought disadvantages to people: a shorter, less healthy life deprived of many freedoms. Only later did it become apparent that agriculture and animal husbandry could feed many times more people; this superiority then led to hunter-gatherers being more and more displaced by sedentary societies. But of course, no one could have foreseen this at the time when this transition was just beginning.

In the same way, no one at the beginning of the Industrial Revolution could have had the slightest idea that the exploitation of fossil deposits, on which the new economic model relied from its very beginning, would less than two hundred years later exhaust fossil resources and poison nature through its toxic residues (CO2) – an unforeseen turn of events that could very well herald the end of the industrial age with its soon to be ten billion people. Henrich rightly sees the Industrial Revolution as a logical continuation of the increasing liberation of markets and individuals from all the fetters that had hitherto constrained them, but he all but ignores that this development may result in the total exploitation and poisoning of nature. Since many and quite serious thinkers meanwhile warn of these dangers, any analysis of cultural evolution must be deemed one-sided, that overlooks these obvious facts.

Max Weber was thoroughly aware of future dangers (not of course of the environmental crisis). This is also true of Jared Diamond, who in his book Collapse explicitly evokes the possibility of the total collapse of societies. In this context, our reservations become are even more relevant when we consider the importance that Henrich justly ascribes to competition.

The competition of individuals and populations

has become an accepted idea since Charles Darwin at the latest. Starting from biology, it conquered the social sciences. In its coarse form, it turned into Social Darwinism, which infamously wreaked immense havoc during the twentieth century. But in the refined form, as accepted by research and by Henrich, competition between clans, tribes and nations means that the most successful models of different human lifestyles are imitated and adopted by other clans, tribes and nations. Of course, this often includes the very opposite of competition, namely cooperation. The big companies in Silicon Valley developed their amazing ideas in constant competition with each other, but within each company cooperation must be the rule – the great companies owe their global success to this coincidentia oppositorum. Like Max Weber before him, Henrich explains the spread of democracy, open markets and innovation throughout today’s world with the fascination of a model that convinces through its greater performance.

However, Henrich is blind to a crucial flaw

of his development model. We already noted that the marriage and family policy of the Church was not at all aimed at freeing man from all ties. The Church wanted to produce Christians. Until the beginning of modern secularized Europe, Christian were instructed to see in pagans and heretics their enemies that had to be fought relentlessly. Instead of ties to a specific clan, ties to a specific religion became the hallmark of one’s identity.

At the beginning of our modern era (roughly from the 17the century onwards), secularization broke the power of the Church and with it the image of its ideological enemies that is pagans and heretics, but this process did not liberate man from ideological foes. Instead, it merely replaced the old enemies with new ones. Anyone who follows the talk shows in China or Russia and the broadcasts of CNN or Fox News in the United States or the sanctions policy of the EU is well aware of the deep socio-political front lines separating mankind today. Inside the major ideological blocs, heresy has been replaced by political incorrectness while between nations pagan beliefs have been replaced by rival ideologies.

This state of affairs confronts us with the paramount problem

of our time. So successful have the great nations become by the process described by Henrich that each of them, with its economy grown to incredible strength by the industrial civilization, consumes for itself several globes, in this way not only destroying their own sustainable livelihood but at the same time that of the rest of mankind. And the three largest of them – the U.S., Russia and China – can each make the entire globe uninhabitable for millennia to come through nuclear destruction. This is the catastrophic effect of that social, psychological, and scientific-innovative increase in efficiency that Henrich so convincingly describes.

Silicon Valley became the symbol of a recipe for success that spread to the entire world: competition towards the outside, cooperation within – therein lies the magic formula of this recipe. But while the miniature happening in the state of  California signals a high point in economic development, its expansion to the entire globe is leading us down the fastest path to disaster. The ceaseless increase in economic and military efficiency of competing nations both cannibalizes the globe and brings humanity ever closer to nuclear self-destruction.

The dilemma, insurmountable at first sight, is that each nation, in the race with all others, weakens itself as soon as it refrains from increasing its own economic or military power for the sake of mankind. That is why we look in vain for even one single rich state pursuing a policy of negative growth and a single poor state voluntarily foregoing positive growth. The situation becomes even more dramatic when we turn to military competition. More and more small states of the kind of North Korea consider it their right (a basic human right?) to acquire the ultimate bomb.

Conclusion

Henrich convincingly demonstrates how the elimination of archaic clan ties has decisively broadened people’s horizons. Nor is it perhaps mere coincidence that he completely overlooks the emergence of new ideologically determined friend-foe stereotypes that replace the old biological ones. If I suggest that this oversight may correspond to an unacknowledged intention on his part, it is because the future of mankind in the 21st century depends on our ability to abolish ideological separation as well. The race of nations for greater economic and military power can only be ended if they mutually recognize each other as representing equal human beings with equal rights, where ideological as well as earlier biological barriers must lose all importance. Only when mankind finally submits to a common authority that replaces the nuclear missiles constantly directed at all of us by a world police, and only when the exploitation and destruction of the earth’s habitat gives way to a sustainable management of the common spaceship earth, can there can be an escape from this race towards the abyss. I know, this idea still seems like utopia to most people today, because, fortunately, the globe is not yet completely poisoned and exploited and because, by mere chance, the ever more complex, ever more destructive arsenals of annihilation constantly enlarged by the great powers have turned our globe into a nuclear waste.In Prof. Henrich’s paean to human development, this rather gloomy perspective is not mentioned. But it arises as an immediate, I would almost say logical consequence. For the sake of intellectual honesty, therefore, it should not be omitted.

*1* It may, of course, be objected that ninety percent of the population, namely the peasantry, were still tied to the land until the 18th century and had to marry locally. The nobility largely resisted the church’s regulations anyway. By and large, only the inhabitants of the cities will have followed them. The British ancient historian Charles Freeman is correspondingly skeptical of Henrich’s thesis. But the historical criticism does not invalidate the astonishing findings that result from Henrich’s statistical material.

Commentary by Prof. Michael Mitterauer,

Dear Mr. Jenner,

with great interest I follow your mailings, which I have been receiving for quite some time. I was particularly interested in your latest contribution “Max Weber – Jared Diamond – Joseph Henrich”. You treat the three authors with regard to how they explain the fact “that Europe followed a path different from all previous history”. This question has also occupied me for many years. In 2003, I published in the Munich Beck-Verlag “Why Europe? Medieval Foundations of a Special Path”. The book received the German Historian’s Prize in 2004 and is now available in Spanish and English translation. As a social historian I started from Max Weber, as an agricultural historian I worked intensively with my classmate Jared Diamond, from whom I received very important suggestions for my Sonderweg research. Since this research is now available in English in several translations, Joseph Henrich and his colleague Jonathan Schulz have repeatedly contacted me. You will find my publications often in their literature citations, unfortunately not my critical remarks. On this background of experience, I would like to allow myself some comments on your article.

Max Weber has put his specific approach to the explanation of the European Sonderweg in the preface to his “Collected Essays on the Sociology of Religion” under the keyword “concatenation of circumstances”. And at such circumstances “concatenated with each other” he cites a long series of factors. If he is quoted again and again only with his “Protestant ethics”, this is an abridgement of his argumentation. One need only look at his work on Italian trading societies or on urbanism in Upper Italy in the High Middle Ages to realize the breadth of his approach. He by no means explains in a one-line, monocausal fashion. Personally, I have tried to take up his approach of the “concatenation of circumstances” and carry it further. And I am convinced, it needs such multifactorial explanations to understand the European special path. I would be happy to send you summary texts on this, if you are interested.

Jared Diamond has chosen the rapid victories of the Spanish in the Americas as vivid examples of how their military superiority was caused by deep-seated cultural differences. But his approach is also much broader and anything but unilinear or monocausal. Inspired by Jared Diamond, I have placed the first chapter on the European Sonderweg in my book under the title “Rye and Oats.” This was done deliberately as a provocation to cultural and intellectual historians who unilaterally seek the origins of the European Sonderweg in the lofty heights of idealistic developments.

Max Weber and Jared Diamond are undoubtedly researchers whose reading should not be specifically recommended to those interested in the conditions of the European Sonderweg. With Joseph Henrich the situation is quite different. His “WEIRD people” are in the truest sense of the word “peculiar people”, whose designation at first arouses interest. However, the explanatory model behind it is very simple and above all scientifically totally outdated. With decades of delay, it once again takes up the thesis of anthropologist Jack Goody, namely that the popes’ early medieval prohibitions on marrying close relatives were the decisive cause for the development of marriage and family in Europe. As recently as 2009, a leading German family historian today, Bernhard Jussen, full professor of medieval studies in Frankfurt a. M., wrote a summary article entitled “Perspectives on Kinship Research Twenty-Five Years after Jack Goody’s ‘Development of Marriage and Family in Europe'” (The Family in Medieval Society, Lectures and Research 71, pp.275-324). After the extensive discussions in medieval studies during this period, Goody’s thesis about the impact of early medieval ecclesiastical endogamy prohibitions on the development of marriage and the family simply cannot be sustained. And now Joseph Henrich and his team try to derive not only the European family development, but the whole European special development, from it with great propaganda effort! The new labeling with “WEIRDpeople” or WEIRDest people” should help this attempt terminologically. In your text you clearly refer to what cannot be explained with the world formula of Henrich&Co. We must indeed speak of Henrich & Co, since Henrich has a large number of collaborators in his scientific production. In your paragraph “At this point I would like to express reservations”, you speak of new bonds which “the church” has brought about that cannot be explaned by the endogamy prohibition. And you are absolutely right when saying “A second criticism concerns the great breaking points of history. Definitely, these cannot be grasped with the methods used in Henrich’s book”.

As an example, you mention the Industrial Revolution. One could add many such “great breaking points of history”. This is also due to the methodology used. The correlations established by Henrich and his team with such mighty effort can ultimately only help to formulate hypotheses. They do not prove anything. For example, they quote: “The higher the marriage rate of cousins in a province, the higher the corruption rate and mafia activity. Henrich &Co fail to provide proof of this supposed regularity. The fact that Francis Fukuyama and other “authorities” recommend the book in no way guarantees methodological reliability.  It only shows that powerful citation and praise cartels are behind it. One could also point to prominent critics. Their number among American anthropologists is currently increasing.

I am firmly convinced that it is worthwhile to analyze historical conditions of the European Sonderweg – especially if one wants to draw conclusions for political action in the present. Reading Max Weber and Jared Diamond with such intentions can still be recommended with a clear conscience. Joseph Henrich does not fit into this line.

Please understand the severity of my criticism. It is not primarily directed at you, but at the busybody Harvard professor.

Yours sincerelyMichael Mitterauer

My response.
This comment is so interesting that I will answer it in my following essay.